The late Konosuke Matsushita, founder of Matsushita Electric Industrial Company (now Panasonic), had a vision for the future called the “waterworks philosophy”. The people of Japan were living in poverty immediately after the defeat in World War II, and Mr. Matsushita believed that mass production of goods and lower prices for goods would eliminate poverty. He said, “If a thirsty person drank water from someone else’s tap, no one would call that person a thief. The ideal would be for all things to be like that. (*For reference, Japan has abundant water resources, and you can drink tap water as is, and restaurants serve water for free.) Although this was considered “fanciful nonsense” within the framework of conventional economics, the current situation makes me think that the waterworks philosophy may not be so far off the mark.

We are currently in the midst of an AI revolution. It is even said that 90% of white-collar jobs will be replaced by AI in the future. Not only white-collar jobs, but also all kinds of labor will be automated by self-driving cars and robots. In such an era, what kind of society will we be able to manage?

According to our current common sense, ordinary people who are not asset holders have to work more than eight hours a day to earn a salary to make a living. However, from a human historical perspective, that does not seem to be the norm. We who live in the capitalist + democratic countries do not consider ourselves “slaves,” but we are de facto slaves when we are required to work 8 hours a day.

As economist Thomas Piketty has shown, when the rate of return on capital exceeds the growth rate of output and income, capitalism automatically creates arbitrary and unsustainable inequality. The word “fire” is much bandied about, but if a person has approximately ¥100 million in financial assets, the profits from these assets alone are enough to sustain the average person’s lifestyle. To the average person, ¥100 million is a large amount of money, but in reality, it is not so large that it is out of reach. Existing banks and other vested interests have simply created a structure that is out of reach for the common people. However, since, in principle, anyone can buy listed stocks, it can be said that the road to becoming an investor and asset holder is already open to all.

Recently, people have been discussing basic income, but I would like to propose a “basic asset. For example, if a baby is born into this world with assets of about 6 million yen provided by the government, and if these assets are invested without being touched until age 65, it is an estimate that everyone can enjoy a prosperous retirement.

If we live under the shelter of our parents until the age of 20, how should we live from the age of 20 to 65? In life, there are pleasures that can only be experienced when one is young. Therefore, it is not happy to live in such a way as to “give up because of lack of money” when one is young. Saving money steadily for the future is not a bad thing if one wishes to do so, but there must be other options as well. At the very least, it is the ideal state of human beings to spend all the income they earn on the things they like and “not be troubled even if they have no savings.

I sometimes see commentaries on YouTube and other media about “the life of common people in the Edo period. They lived in tenements with holes in the walls, which is quite poor compared to our current lifestyle, but they also had an elegant side, working for 3 hours in the morning and playing upstairs in a public bathhouse in the afternoon.

If AI drastically reduces the demand for labor, many of us will be living like the people of the Edo period. However, food, clothing, and shelter will be at a much improved level than in the Edo period, and we will be able to maintain that lifestyle with very short working hours. However, the content of labor will be limited to something almost equally simple for everyone. Jobs that are appropriate for people who are smart or well-educated will not be available to ordinary people because AI will be able to do them.

However, if this is taken to the extreme, we will end up with all incompetent people who do not have a work ability, and there will be a balancing force at work somewhere. Current white-collar workers also do not have a work ability and are doing unnecessary jobs created according to fictional rules, but these jobs should be wiped out by AI. However, even if there are no jobs for professionals, it will be reaffirmed that sharing and passing on expertise is important for the sustainability of civilization.

Thus, many of us will be able to enjoy a cultural life with much shorter working hours than at present, and with only the “minimum duty” of performing simple jobs that anyone can do. If we wished, we could study professionally and obtain qualifications that would enable us to attain positions where people would respect us. However, it would be a kind of honorary position.

There is a common argument that simple jobs should be left to AI and humans should do more creative things, but unfortunately, only a small percentage of people have creative talents. In my opinion, it is just not possible to ask the overwhelming majority of people to be creative.

AI is about to free people from labor, but another essential element for this to happen is “energy.” If AI and robots are to replace humans, energy is needed to power them.

When comparing the energy efficiency of machines to that of humans and animals, the former is hardly comparable to the latter. It is astonishing that a human being can be active even with a single handful of rice. Thus, if the cost of energy is high, even if automation is technically possible, the price of goods will not come down.

When the prices of goods are high, income is needed to obtain them, so it may not be possible to eliminate the fictionalized waste of labor. The ability to utilize inexhaustible energy may become a prerequisite for the sound management of the future that AI is trying to realize.

(In the future, GDP and economic growth will not be indicators of wealth. In this respect, Japan may be at the forefront of the world.)